{"id":1813,"date":"2026-04-30T18:22:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T10:22:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yqcsfz.com\/?p=1813"},"modified":"2026-04-30T18:22:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T10:22:37","slug":"%e3%80%8c9-%e4%b8%87%e8%87%b3-11-%e4%b8%87%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e5%8c%ba%e9%97%b4%e3%80%8d%e5%b2%8c%e5%b2%8c%e5%8f%af%e5%8d%b1%ef%bc%9f%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b8%81%e7%89%9b%e5%b8%82%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/?p=1813","title":{"rendered":"\u300c9 \u4e07\u81f3 11 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u533a\u95f4\u300d\u5c8c\u5c8c\u53ef\u5371\uff1f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u725b\u5e02\u9762\u4e34\u300c 3 \u5927\u53d8\u6570\u300d\u8003\u9a8c"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\u300c9<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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\u81ea 2023 \u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff08BTC\uff09\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u300c\u9636\u68af\u5f0f\u725b\u5e02<\/b>\u300d\u8d70\u52bf\u2014\u2014 \u6bcf\u6b21\u5927\u6da8\u540e\u5fc5\u5b9a\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u77ed\u6682\u76d8\u6574\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u5ea6\u84c4\u52bf\u653b\u9ad8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u76ee\u524d\u5728 \u300c<\/strong> 9 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u81f3 10 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u300d\u533a\u95f4\u76d8\u6574\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u50cf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u6837\u8fce\u6765\u7a81\u7834\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u539f\u672c\u4e50\u89c2\u770b\u5f85\u8fd9\u8f6e\u76d8\u6574\uff0c\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u662f\u5728\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6ce2\u51b2\u523a\u884c\u60c5\u94fa\u8def\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u4eca\u5374\u6709 \u300c3 <\/strong>\u5927\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u6570\u300d\u6d6e\u73b0<\/b>\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6253\u4e71\u5e02\u573a\u8282\u594f\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u8fd9\u6b21\u65e0\u6cd5\u5982\u613f\u518d\u521b\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6050\u9762\u4e34\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

1 \u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u53d8\u5c11\u4e86<\/b><\/b><\/h3>\n

\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u6015\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u884c\u60c5\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u300c\u8d44\u91d1\u7f29\u6c34\u300d\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8d27\u5e01 \u2014\u2014 \u7f8e\u5143\uff08USD\uff09\u4e00\u65e6\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u8fd9\u7c7b\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n

BitMEX \u521b\u529e\u4eba\u3001 Maelstrom \u6295\u8d44\u957f Arthur Hayes<\/b> \u5c31\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6b63\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u5c0f\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/strong>\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u50a8\u5907\u5e10\u6237\u300cTreasury General Account\uff08TGA\uff09\u300d\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u4f59\u989d\uff0c\u77ed\u77ed 4 \u5468\u5185\u4ece 6,230 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u9aa4\u589e\u81f3 8,000 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u8457\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u62bd\u8d70\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c<\/strong>\u800c\u975e\u91ca\u653e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

Stranger Things: some notes from my macro daddy Felix Zulauf:<\/p>\n

– US fiscal deficit declining, $ liq -ve
– TGA increased even tho debt limit reached weeks ago, $ liq -ve
– US banks reducing $ loans to foreigners, $ liq -ve<\/p>\n

Not pretty<\/p>\n

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 5, 2025<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u539f\u5148\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c 1 \u6708\u89e6\u53ca 36 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u52a1\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u6d88\u8017 TGA \u5e10\u6237\u4f59\u989d\uff0c\u4ee5\u7279\u6b8a\u624b\u6bb5\u7ef4\u6301\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u652f\u6491\u80a1\u5e02\u3001\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u884c\u60c5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5e76\u672a\u5982\u8fc7\u53bb\u822c\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u9009\u62e9\u4fdd\u7559\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u906d\u53d7\u538b\u5236\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u4e13\u5bb6 Anddy Lian \u4e5f\u793a\u8b66\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\u5173\u952e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6765\u6e90\u6b63\u5728\u67af\u7aed\u6216\u53d7\u5230\u66f4\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u3001\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8ba9\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff09\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5229\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\"\u300c9<\/p>\n

2 \u3001\u5ddd\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6218\u7565\u50a8\u5907\u300c\u6539\u53e3\u300d<\/b><\/h3>\n

\u81ea 1 \u6708 20 \u65e5\u91cd\u8fd4\u767d\u5bab\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\u79ef\u6781\u843d\u5b9e\u7ade\u9009\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u4ece\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7a0e\u3001\u975e\u6cd5\u79fb\u6c11\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e00\u4e00\u8fc5\u901f\u63a8\u52a8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u539f\u672c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u671f\u5f85\u7684 \u300c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6218\u7565\u50a8\u5907\u300d\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u5374\u7a81\u7136\u53d8\u8c03\u3001\u9677\u5165\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u66fe\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ece 7 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u72c2\u98d9\u81f3 10 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u539f\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5ddd\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u5feb\u901f\u843d\u5b9e\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u65b0\u6d88\u606f\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u767d\u5bab\u76ee\u524d\u4ec5\u6253\u7b97 \u300c\u8bc4\u4f30\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7acb\u5373\u63a8\u52a8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u8ba9\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u9887\u611f\u5931\u671b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u534e\u5e9c\uff0c\u300c\u8bc4\u4f30<\/b>\u300d\u8a00\u4e0b\u4e4b\u610f\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u9065\u9065\u65e0\u671f<\/b>\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u80ce\u6b7b\u8179\u4e2d\u3002 Bianco Research \u603b\u88c1 Jim Bianco<\/b> \u76f4\u8a00\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\u5ddd\u666e\u5f53\u521d\u660e\u660e\u8bf4\u8981\u8bbe\u7acb\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6218\u7565\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5374\u53d8\u6210\u300c\u8bc4\u4f30\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u300d\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u534e\u5e9c\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u62d6\u5ef6\u672f\u2014\u2014 \u5f53\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u60f3\u505a\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5f00\u59cb\u300c\u7814\u7a76\u300d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u6781\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u6d88\u606f\u4e00\u51fa\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7acb\u5373\u4ece 10 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u65b9\u6025\u8dcc\u81f3 9.6 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143<\/b>\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u611f\u5230\u5fe7\u8651\u3002<\/p>\n

3 \u3001\u6280\u672f\u6307\u6807\u62c9\u8b66\u62a5\uff0c2021 \u5e74\u725b\u5e02\u89e6\u9876\u6a21\u5f0f\u91cd\u73b0<\/b><\/b><\/h3>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u53d8\u6570\u5916\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u6307\u6807\u4e5f\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86 \u300c\u4e0d\u7965\u8baf\u53f7\u300d<\/strong>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u628a\u00a014 \u5468 RSI\uff08\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5f31\u6307\u6570\uff09<\/b> \u62c9\u51fa\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u76ee\u524d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0e 2021 \u5e74\u725b\u5e02\u89c1\u9876\u65f6\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u300c\u718a\u80cc\u79bb\u300d\u578b\u6001<\/b>\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u6301\u7eed\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46 RSI \u6307\u6807\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u540c\u6b65\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5e02\u573a\u4e70\u76d8\u52a8\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c<\/b>\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u300c\u4ef7\u683c\u521b\u9ad8\u3001 RSI \u8d70\u4f4e<\/b>\u300d\u7684\u5178\u578b\u718a\u80cc\u79bb\u578b\u6001\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01 2021 \u5e74\u5728 6.9 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u89e6\u9876\u4e4b\u524d<\/strong>\u7684\u8b66\u8baf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u82e5 RSI \u80fd\u7a81\u7834\u4e0b\u964d\u8d8b\u52bf\u7ebf\uff0c\u5e76\u91cd\u65b0\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u300c\u718a\u80cc\u79bb\u300d\u8b66\u8baf\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ecd\u6709\u91cd\u542f\u6da8\u52bf\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u81ea 2023 \u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff08BTC\uff09\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u300c\u9636\u68af\u5f0f\u725b\u5e02\u300d\u8d70\u52bf\u2014\u2014 \u6bcf\u6b21\u5927\u6da8\u540e\u5fc5\u5b9a\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u77ed\u6682\u76d8\u6574\uff0c\u7136\u540e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1814,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1813"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7487,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1813\/revisions\/7487"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}