{"id":677,"date":"2026-01-26T17:06:54","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T09:06:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yqcsfz.com\/?p=677"},"modified":"2026-01-26T17:06:54","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T09:06:54","slug":"%e5%bd%93%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e5%b7%b2%e6%88%90%e5%85%b1%e8%af%86%ef%bc%8c%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e4%bc%9a%e5%9b%a0%e3%80%8c%e5%88%a9%e5%a4%9a%e5%87%ba%e5%b0%bd%e3%80%8d%e8%80%8c%e5%9b%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/?p=677","title":{"rendered":"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"thumbnail-container animate-lazy\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"750\" height=\"375\" class=\"attachment-jnews-750x375 size-jnews-750x375 lazyload wp-post-image\" alt=\"Fed \u653f\u7b56\u660e\u6717\u5316\uff01\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u770b\u597d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e74\u5e95\u300c\u5f3a\u52bf\u6536\u5b98\u300d\" src=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/jerome-powell-FED-1-750x375.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/jerome-powell-FED-1-750x375.jpg 750w, https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/jerome-powell-FED-1-360x180.jpg 360w, https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/jerome-powell-FED-1-1140x570.jpg 1140w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-expand=\"700\" title=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-content no-share\">\n<div class=\"jeg_share_button share-float jeg_sticky_share clearfix share-monocrhome\">\n<div class=\"jeg_share_float_container\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"content-inner \">\n<p><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aDavid\uff0c\u6df1\u6f6e TechFlow<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u672c\u5468\u56db\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u5e74\u5185\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u975e\u5e38\u4e00\u81f4\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e CME FedWatch \u6570\u636e\uff0c\u964d\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u673a\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 85% \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u843d\u5730\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f 9 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u964d\u81f3 3.5%-3.75% \u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-132992\" src=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/f70c55942da60c244fcee1f8145b2a6d.webp\"  width=\"1080\" height=\"679\" title=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe1\" alt=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e60\u60ef\u4e86\u300c\u964d\u606f=\u5229\u591a\u300d\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5f53\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u9884\u671f\u964d\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u63a8\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u9884\u671f\u673a\u5668\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u300c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>85% \u7684\u673a\u7387\u610f\u5473\u8457\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1b\u5468\u56db\u51cc\u6668\u771f\u6b63\u516c\u5e03\u65f6\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u51fa\u73b0\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u592a\u5927\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u90a3\u4ec0\u4e48\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u53d8\u6570\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u5bf9\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u964d 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\u3001 2026 \u5e74\u8fd8\u80fd\u964d\u51e0\u6b21\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u624d\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u771f\u6b63\u5728\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5468\u56db\u51cc\u6668\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u4f1a\u540c\u6b65\u66f4\u65b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4efd\u9884\u6d4b\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u5f53\u6b21\u7684\u964d\u606f\u51b3\u5b9a\u66f4\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8fd9\u6b21\u6709\u989d\u5916\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u81ea\u5df1\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u770b\u4e0d\u592a\u6e05\u695a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e 10 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u81f3 11 \u6708 12 \u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u505c\u6446\u4e86 43 \u5929\u3002\u671f\u95f4\u7edf\u8ba1\u90e8\u95e8\u6682\u505c\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4 10 \u6708 CPI \u53d6\u6d88\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c11 \u6708 CPI \u63a8\u8fdf\u5230 12 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u6bd4\u672c\u5468\u7684 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u8fd8\u665a\u4e86\u6574\u6574\u4e00\u5468\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u8457 Fed \u59d4\u5458\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u65f6\uff0c\u624b\u4e0a\u7f3a\u4e86\u6700\u8fd1\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u81ea\u5df1\u90fd\u5728\u8499\u8457\u773c\u775b\u4e2d\u6478\u7d22\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ed9\u4e88\u7684\u6307\u5f15\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u800c\u6a21\u7cca\u5f80\u5f80\u610f\u5473\u8457\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5148\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u5468\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8f74\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-132991\" src=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/f9fd5374e58bc8a9992d46368df38828.webp\"  width=\"1080\" height=\"373\" title=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe2\" alt=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe2\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5177\u4f53\u5206\u6790\u4e0b\uff0cFed \u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u51fa\u54ea\u51e0\u79cd\u8baf\u53f7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u535a\u5f08\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u9884\u671f<\/h3>\n<p>\u6bcf\u6b21 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\uff0cFed \u90fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u5e03\u4e00\u4efd\u300c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u6458\u8981\u300d\uff08Summary of Economic Projections\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91cc\u9762\u6709\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u6240\u6709 Fed \u59d4\u5458\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bcf\u4f4d\u59d4\u5458\u753b\u4e00\u4e2a\u70b9\uff0c\u6807\u51fa\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e74\u5e95\u5229\u7387\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u4e00\u5806\u6563\u843d\u7684\u5706\u70b9\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e60\u60ef\u53eb\u5b83\u300c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u300d\uff08dot plot\uff09\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u5b98\u7f51\u67e5\u5230\u5386\u6b21\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u6b63\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u5f20\u662f 9 \u6708 17 \u65e5\u90a3\u6b21 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u6240\u653e\u51fa\u7684\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-132990\" src=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/331702ee8a0674ebd2135dd544a0180a.webp\"  width=\"1080\" height=\"988\" title=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe3\" alt=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe3\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u548c\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u70b9\u90fd\u805a\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u59d4\u5458\u4eec\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\u76f8\u5bf9\u660e\u786e\uff1b<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u70b9\u6563\u5f97\u5f88\u5f00\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u5185\u90e8\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5c31\u5145\u6ee1\u53d8\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5b83\u4f1a\u538b\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u8ba9\u8d44\u91d1\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u89c2\u671b\u800c\u975e\u5165\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u90a3\u4e00\u5217\u7684\u70b9\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\uff1a3.5%-3.625% \u9644\u8fd1\u6709\u5927\u7ea6 8-9 \u4e2a\u70b9\uff0c3.75%-4.0% \u9644\u8fd1\u4e5f\u6709 7-8 \u4e2a\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5185\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u4e86\u4e24\u6d3e\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u6d3e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u5e94\u8be5\u518d\u964d 1-2 \u6b21\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u6d3e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u8be5\u6682\u505c\u6216\u53ea\u964d\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u843d\u5728 3.6% \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u9884\u671f\u662f 2025 \u5e74\u5185\u518d\u964d 2 \u6b21\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u672c\u5468\u8fd9\u6b21\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u518d\u770b 2026 \u5e74\uff0cFed \u6210\u5458\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u5229\u7387\u662f 3.75%-4.00%\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u660e\u5e74\u5e95\u964d\u5230 3.4% \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5168\u5e74\u53ea\u964d 1-2 \u6b21\u3002\u4f46\u4ece\u56fe\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u6709\u59d4\u5458\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u8be5\u964d\u5230 2.5%\uff08\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u964d 4-5 \u6b21\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e94\u8be5\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 4.0% \u4e0d\u52a8\uff08\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u4e0d\u964d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u91cc\uff0c\u6700\u6fc0\u8fdb\u548c\u6700\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5dee\u4e86 6 \u6b21\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u300c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5206\u88c2\u300d\u7684\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u88c2\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u8baf\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u5185\u90e8\u5982\u679c\u90fd\u5435\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7528\u811a\u6295\u7968\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u6bd4\u5b98\u65b9\u6307\u5f15\u66f4\u79ef\u6781\u3002 CME FedWatch \u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7 2026 \u5e74\u4f1a\u964d\u606f 2-3 \u6b21\uff0c\u800c\u5b98\u65b9\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u53ea\u663e\u793a 1 \u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u56db\u7684 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f Fed \u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u300c\u5bf9\u8868\u300d\uff0cFed \u4f1a\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u9760\u62e2\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u575a\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8282\u594f\uff1f<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e09\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4e09\u79cd\u53cd\u5e94<\/h3>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff0c\u672c\u5468 FOMC \u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u300c\u7b26\u5408\u9884\u671f\u300d\uff1a<\/strong>\u964d\u606f 25bp\uff0c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0a\u6b21 9 \u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u6307\u5f15\uff0cPowell \u5728\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0a\u53cd\u590d\u5f3a\u8c03\u300c\u6570\u636e\u4f9d\u8d56\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ed9\u51fa\u660e\u786e\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u592a\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u88ab\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u6307\u5f15\u6ca1\u6709\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u65b0\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8baf\u53f7\u3002\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u673a\u7387\u8ddf\u968f\u7f8e\u80a1\u5c0f\u5e45\u9707\u8361\u540e\u56de\u5f52\u539f\u6709\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u591a\u6570\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u673a\u6784\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9ad8\u76db\u548c Raymond James \u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u7814\u62a5\u90fd\u6307\u5411\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6b21\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u300c\u504f\u9e3d\u6d3e\u300d\uff1a<\/strong>\u964d\u606f 25bp\uff0c\u4f46\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u663e\u793a 2026 \u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u964d 2 \u6b21\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u591a\uff0cPowell \u63aa\u8f9e\u504f\u8f6f\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u5927\u4e8e\u901a\u81a8\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e Fed \u5411\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u9760\u62e2\uff0c\u786e\u8ba4\u5bbd\u677e\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u4f1a\u63a8\u5347\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u4ef7\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9884\u671f\u6539\u5584\u4f1a\u63d0\u632f\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u3002 BTC \u548c ETH \u53ef\u80fd\u8ddf\u968f\u7f8e\u80a1\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u53ef\u671b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fd1\u671f\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u673a\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u7684\u662f\u300c\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\u300d\uff1a<\/strong>\u867d\u7136\u964d\u606f 25bp\uff0c\u4f46 Powell \u5f3a\u8c03\u901a\u81a8\u9ecf\u6027\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u660e\u5e74\u964d\u606f\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u9650\uff1b\u6216\u51fa\u73b0\u591a\u5f20\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5185\u90e8\u5bf9\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bbd\u677e\u5b58\u5728\u963b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-132989\" src=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/920e7d9b9f9a9d6886cd3c2deb9d6e60.webp\"  width=\"1080\" height=\"557\" title=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe4\" alt=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe4\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u7b49\u4e8e\u544a\u8bc9\u5e02\u573a\u300c\u4f60\u4eec\u60f3\u592a\u591a\u4e86\u300d\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9884\u671f\u6536\u7d27\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u627f\u538b\u3002\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u77ed\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u56de\u8c03\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u9ad8 Beta \u7684\u5c71\u5be8\u5e01\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u662f\u63aa\u8f9e\u504f\u9e70\u800c\u975e\u653f\u7b56\u5b9e\u8d28\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45\u5f80\u5f80\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5165\u573a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cFed \u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u8d44\u6599\u8c03\u6574\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u6b21\u4ed6\u4eec\u56e0\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u505c\u6446\u7f3a\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u7684 CPI\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u9760\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u8d44\u8baf\u6765\u505a\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5e26\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\u503c\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff1b\u59d4\u5458\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u90fd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u753b\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5206\u6563\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0cPowell \u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u4f1a\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u4ece\u4ed6\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u8bcd\u91cc\u5bfb\u627e\u65b9\u5411\u611f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u663e\u793a\u7684\u503e\u5411\u548c Powell \u7684\u53e3\u98ce\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u56f0\u60d1\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5468\u56db\u51cc\u6668\u7684\u884c\u60c5\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u5e73\u5e38\u66f4\u96be\u9884\u5224\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u5176\u8d4c\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u5173\u6ce8\u6ce2\u52a8\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u5f53\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u90e8\u4f4d\u6bd4\u62bc\u6ce8\u6da8\u8dcc\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u804c\u7f3a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6ca1\u4f60\u60f3\u7684\u90a3\u4e48\u91cd\u8981<\/h3>\n<p>\u524d\u9762\u804a\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u661f\u671f\u56db\u7684 FOMC\uff0c\u4f46\u672c\u5468\u4e8c\u4e5f\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86 JOLTs \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u793e\u7fa4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u5076\u5c14\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u5b83\u8bf4\u5f97\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u50cf\u662f\u300c\u6084\u6084\u51b3\u5b9a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8d70\u5411\u300d\u4e4b\u7c7b\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0cJOLTs \u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u8d44\u6599\u91cc\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u5e76\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u65f6\u95f4\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u76ef\u7d27\u5468\u56db\u7684 FOMC \u5c31\u591f\u4e86\uff1b<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u591a\u4e86\u89e3\u4e00\u70b9\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u8baf\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f80\u4e0b\u770b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>JOLTs \u5168\u540d\u4e3a Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\uff0c\u7ffb\u8bd1\u8fc7\u6765\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u804c\u7f3a\u4e0e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6d41\u52a8\u8c03\u67e5\u300d\u3002\u5b83\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff08BLS\uff09\u6bcf\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u804c\u4f4d\u5728\u62db\u4eba\u3001\u62db\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u3001\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u79bb\u804c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u300c\u804c\u7f3a\u6570\u300d\uff08job openings\uff09\uff1a\u6570\u5b57\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u4f01\u4e1a\u62db\u52df\u9700\u6c42\u8d8a\u65fa\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u8d8a\u7d27\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2022 \u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u8d85\u8fc7 1,200 \u4e07\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u90a3\u65f6\u5019\u4f01\u4e1a\u75af\u72c2\u62a2\u4eba\u3001\u85aa\u8d44\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0cFed \u62c5\u5fc3\u8fd9\u4f1a\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u81a8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5df2\u7ecf\u56de\u843d\u5230 720 \u4e07\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u56de\u5230\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-132988\" src=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/16ccc2816ee44ce18de060eceaeddb98.webp\"  width=\"1080\" height=\"525\" title=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe5\" alt=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe5\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0cJOLTs \u662f\u6ede\u540e\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u662f 10 \u6708\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f 12 \u6708\u4e86\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u65f6\u6548\u6027\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6bcf\u5468\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u3001\u6bcf\u6708\u521d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c710 \u4e07\u5de6\u53f3\u804c\u7f3a\u6570\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u4e0d\u7b97\u300c\u8fc7\u70ed\u300d\u3002\u5148\u524d\u6709\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u804c\u7f3a\u4e0e\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728 8 \u6708\u5df2\u7ecf\u8dcc\u7834 1.0\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u73b0\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5931\u4e1a\u8005\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e0d\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a7a\u7f3a\u804c\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u548c 2022 \u5e74\u300c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5931\u4e1a\u8005\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e24\u4e2a\u804c\u4f4d\u300d\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u300c\u8fc7\u70ed\u300d\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u65e9\u5c31\u8fc7\u65f6\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e LinkUp \u548c Wells Fargo \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4eca\u665a\u516c\u5e03\u7684 10 \u6708 JOLTs \u5927\u6982\u7387\u5728 7.13-7.14M \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u548c\u4e0a\u6b21\u7684 7.2M \u53d8\u5316\u4e0d\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u7b26\u5408\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u53cd\u5e94\uff1b\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u786e\u8ba4\u4e86\u300c\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u6301\u7eed\u7f13\u6162\u964d\u6e29\u300d\u7684\u65e2\u6709\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u5bf9 Fed \u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u665a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u66f4\u50cf\u662f FOMC 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\u65e5\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e00\u5ea6\u8fbe\u5230 0.8\uff0c\u662f 2022 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6700\u8fd1\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6839\u636e CoinDesk \u7684\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb 20 \u5929 BTC \u4e0e\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5df2\u7ecf\u8dcc\u5230-0.43\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u660e\u663e\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_132987\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-132987\" style=\"width: 1080px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-132987 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blockcast.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/e2919f8e9eeaed1091510e8151a7710e.webp\"  width=\"1080\" height=\"620\" title=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe6\" alt=\"\u5f53\u964d\u606f\u5df2\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u56e0\u300c\u5229\u591a\u51fa\u5c3d\u300d\u800c\u56de\u6863\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe6\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-132987\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff1a https:\/\/newhedge.io\/<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u8ddd\u79bb\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\u53ea\u6709 2%\uff0cBTC \u4ece 10 \u6708\u9ad8\u70b9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 27% \u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u505a\u5e02\u5546 Wintermute \u5bf9\u6b64\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\uff1aBTC \u76ee\u524d\u5448\u73b0\u300c\u8d1f\u9762\u504f\u659c\u300d\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u8dcc\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5b83\u8dcc\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u6da8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5b83\u53cd\u5e94\u8fdf\u949d\u3002\u7528\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cBTC\u300c\u53ea\u5728\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u9ad8 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\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\u504f\u9e3d\u8fd8\u662f\u504f\u9e70\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u6709\u591a\u5f20\u53cd\u5bf9\u7968\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>12 \u6708\u4e2d\u4e0b\u65ec\u5173\u6ce8\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>12 \u6708 18 \u65e5\u4f1a\u8865\u53d1 11 \u6708 CPI \u3002\u5982\u679c\u901a\u81a8\u6570\u636e\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6 Fed\u300c\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bbd\u677e\u300d\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2026 \u5e74 Q1 \u5173\u6ce8\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9996\u5148\u662f Fed \u4e3b\u5e2d\u7684\u4eba\u4e8b\u53d8\u52a8\u3002 Powell \u7684\u4efb\u671f\u5230 2026 \u5e74 5 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\u672c\u5468\u56db\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u5e74\u5185\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u975e\u5e38\u4e00\u81f4\uff1a \u6839\u636e  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":678,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}