{"id":770,"date":"2026-02-03T09:10:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T01:10:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yqcsfz.com\/?p=770"},"modified":"2026-02-03T09:10:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T01:10:48","slug":"2025-%e5%b9%b4%e7%bb%88%e5%a4%a7%e8%80%83%ef%bc%9afomc-%e5%86%b3%e8%ae%ae%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8c%e5%8a%a0%e5%af%86%e8%b5%84%e4%ba%a7%e9%85%8d%e7%bd%ae%e6%8c%87%e5%8d%97%e3%80%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/?p=770","title":{"rendered":"2025 \u5e74\u7ec8\u5927\u8003\uff1aFOMC \u51b3\u8bae\u540e\u7684\u300c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u6307\u5357\u300d"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"MICA<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n

2025 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5173\u952e\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff08BTC\uff09\u8dcc\u7834 90,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\uff08Fear & Greed Index\uff09\u4e0b\u63a2 11\uff08\u6781\u7aef\u6050\u60e7\uff09\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005 capitulation \u8fbe\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e 2024 \u5e74\u65e5\u5706\u5957\u5229\u5d29\u76d8\u5e95\u90e8\u3002 12 \u6708 10 \u65e5\u7684 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u5df2\u843d\u5e55\uff0c\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\uff08Fed\uff09\u5982\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u964d\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3 3.50%-3.75%\uff0c\u4f46\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u8f6c\u4e3a\u9e70\u6d3e\uff0d2026 \u5e74\u4ec5\u9884\u671f\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4 BTC \u8dcc\u7834 90,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u5173\u53e3\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u5e73\u6de1\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u300c\u4e70\u9884\u671f\u3001\u5356\u4e8b\u5b9e\u300d\u7684\u56de\u6863\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0cFed \u540c\u65f6\u542f\u52a8\u300c\u50a8\u5907\u7ba1\u7406\u8d2d\u4e70\u300d\uff08RMP\uff09\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u6bcf\u6708\u6ce8\u5165 400 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u77ed\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u300c\u975e QE\u300d\u7684\u6e29\u548c\u5bbd\u677e\u8baf\u53f7\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u91cd\u5851\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u300c\u5e74\u7ec8\u5927\u8003\u300d\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u300c\u6301\u5e01\u8fc7\u8282\u300d\u8fce\u63a5\u6f5c\u5728\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u300c\u843d\u888b\u4e3a\u5b89\u300d\u9501\u5b9a\u5229\u6da6\uff1f\u672c\u6587\u7ed3\u5408 FOMC \u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u94fe\u4e0a\u8d44\u6599\u3001\u673a\u6784\u52a8\u5411\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u914d\u7f6e\u7b56\u7565\u5e76\u5c55\u671b 2026 \u5e74\u5e03\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n

FOMC \u51b3\u8bae\u89e3\u8bfb<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"2025<\/p>\n

\u9e70\u6d3e\u964d\u606f\u4e0b\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8f6c\u6298 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u662f 2025 \u5e74\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u672c\u6b21\u4ee5 9:3 \u5206\u6b67\u901a\u8fc7\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u300d\u663e\u793a 2026 \u5e74\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f84\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4ec5\u5269\u4e00\u6b21 25 \u57fa\u70b9\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u300c\u9e70\u6d3e\u964d\u606f\u300d\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\uff1aFed \u62c5\u5fe7\u901a\u81a8\u53cd\u5f39\u548c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u8f6f\u8457\u9646\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u4e0d\u613f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5bbd\u677e\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u5b9a\u4ef7 89% \u7684\u964d\u606f\u673a\u7387\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e BTC \u4ec5\u5c0f\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0cETH \u5219\u5728 3,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u76d8\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53cc\u91cd\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • \u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\uff1a\u9e70\u6d3e\u6307\u5f15\u52a0\u5267\u98ce\u9669\u538c\u6076\uff0cBTC \u672a\u5982\u9884\u671f\u53cd\u5f39\u81f3 94,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u89e6\u53d1\u6570\u767e\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6760\u6746\u6e05\u7b97\u3002 \u5e74\u5e95\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8584\uff08\u5982\u6c38\u7eed\u5408\u7ea6\u6301\u80a1\u8f83 10 \u6708\u964d 40%-50%\uff09\uff0c\u53e0\u52a0\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\uff08BOJ\uff09\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6613\u73b0\u300c\u6cf5\u6d66\u540e\u503e\u9500\u300d\u3002<\/li>\n
  • \u957f\u671f\u5229\u597d\uff1aQT\uff08\u91cf\u5316\u7d27\u7f29\uff09\u4e8e 12 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u6b63\u5f0f\u7ed3\u675f\uff0cFed \u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u4ece 9 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u7f29\u81f3 6.5 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\u540e\u5f00\u59cb\u56de\u5347\u3002 RMP \u8ba1\u5212\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u300c\u9690\u5f62 QE\u300d\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1 2026 \u5e74\u6ce8\u5165\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u91cd\u4f30\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u62d0\u70b9\u5f80\u5f80\u5f15\u53d1\u52a0\u5bc6\u53cd\u5f39\uff08\u5982 2024 \u5e74 Fed \u8f6c\u5411\u540e BTC \u66b4\u6da8\uff09\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5168\u7403 M2 \u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u7206\u70b8\u6027\u6210\u957f\u3001 DXY \u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\/\u6b27\u76df\u523a\u6fc0\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u503e\u659c\u5230\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    FOMC \u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u300c\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e3b\u5bfc\u300d\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9760\u5468\u671f\u9a71\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\/AI \u8d44\u4ea7\u8fde\u7ed3\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u4f46\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6ce8\u5165\u4e3a 2026 \u5e74\u94fa\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n

    \"2025<\/p>\n

    \u65b0\u8054\u51c6\u4f1a\uff08Fed\uff09\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7684\u4efb\u547d\u4e5f\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a 2026 \u5e74\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u6570\u3002 Jerome Powell \u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4efb\u671f\u5c06\u4e8e 2026 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u6b63\u5f0f\u7ed3\u675f\uff08\u5176\u7406\u4e8b\u4efb\u671f\u81f3 2028 \u5e74 1 \u6708\uff09\u3002\u5ddd\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u5df2\u8868\u793a\u5c06\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u521d\u5ba3\u5e03\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\u63d0\u540d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u70ed\u95e8\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u300c\u4e24\u4e2a Kevin\u300d\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4efb Kevin Hassett\uff08\u4e3b\u5f20\u66f4\u79ef\u6781\u964d\u606f\uff09\u548c\u524d Fed \u7406\u4e8b Kevin Warsh\uff08\u6700\u8fd1\u8bbf\u767d\u5bab\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u54a8\u8be2\u603b\u7edf\u5229\u7387\u89c2\u70b9\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u4e00\u4f4d\u66f4\u4eb2\u5ddd\u666e\u3001\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e0a\u4efb\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f3a\u5316 2026 \u5e74\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5e76\u52a0\u901f\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6ce8\u5165\uff0c\u4e0e RMP \u8ba1\u5212\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u50a8\u5907\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u632f\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u632f\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u673a\u6784\u52a8\u5411\u9884\u5bdf\uff1a2026 \u5e74\u5e03\u5c40\uff0d\u4ece\u300c\u9632\u5fa1\u300d\u5230\u300c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53c2\u4e0e\u300d<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    2025 \u5e74\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u300c\u52a0\u5bc6\u4e3b\u6d41\u5316\u5143\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u673a\u6784\u5165\u573a\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u8fb9\u7f18\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u6839\u636e a16z \u7684\u300a2025 \u52a0\u5bc6\u72b6\u6001\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5982 Visa \u3001 BlackRock \u3001 Fidelity \u548c JPMorgan Chase \u5df2\u5168\u9762\u63a8\u51fa\u52a0\u5bc6\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u539f\u751f\u73a9\u5bb6\u5982 PayPal \u548c Stripe \u5219\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e0a\u52a0\u7801\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u8fd9\u6807\u5fd7\u8457\u4ece\u300c\u96f6\u552e\u4e3b\u5bfc\u300d\u5230\u300c\u673a\u6784\u4e3b\u5bfc\u300d\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u8f6c\u53d8\uff1aEY-Parthenon \u4e0e Coinbase \u8054\u5408\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c83% \u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8ba1\u5212\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u6269\u5927\u52a0\u5bc6\u914d\u7f6e\uff0cDeFi \u66b4\u9732\u7387\u9884\u8ba1\u4ece 24% \u8dc3\u5347\u81f3 75%\uff0c\u7126\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u501f\u8d37\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u673a\u6784\u914d\u7f6e\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1a\u4ece BTC \u5355\u4e00\u914d\u7f6e\u5230\u591a\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408<\/strong><\/h4>\n
      \n
    • BTC \u4ecd\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u5360\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d\uff1aBTC \u4f5c\u4e3a\u300c\u6570\u4f4d\u9ec4\u91d1\u300d\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e3b\u5bfc\u673a\u6784\u90e8\u4f4d\uff08ETF AUM \u5df2\u8d85 1,680 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5360\u673a\u6784\u52a0\u5bc6\u66b4\u9732 60-80%\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u673a\u6784\u89c6\u5176\u4e3a\u4f4e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u591a\u5143\u5316\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5355\u4e00\u6295\u673a\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/li>\n
    • \u5411 ETH \u3001 Altcoins \u4e0e\u65b0\u5174\u8d44\u4ea7\u6269\u5c55\uff1a\u673a\u6784\u6b63\u589e\u52a0 ETH\uff08staking \u6536\u76ca\u5438\u5f15\uff09\u3001 Solana\uff08\u9ad8 TPS \u4e0e\u673a\u6784\u4f19\u4f34\uff09\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\uff08\u652f\u4ed8\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca RWA\uff08\u5b9e\u4f53\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ee3\u5e01\u5316\uff09\u3002 Coinbase \u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c76% \u673a\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u6295\u8d44\u4ee3\u5e01\u5316\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u7126\u70b9\u5305\u62ec tokenized Treasuries \u3001\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6743\u4e0e\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5373\u65f6\u7ed3\u7b97\u4e0e\u5206\u6570\u5316\u6240\u6709\u6743\u3002<\/li>\n
    • \u9000\u4f11\u57fa\u91d1\u4e0e\u4e3b\u6743\u8d22\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\u8bd5\u63a2\u5165\u573a\uff1a\u867d\u591a\u4e3a\u95f4\u63a5\u66b4\u9732\uff08\u5982\u632a\u5a01\u57fa\u91d1\u900f\u8fc7 MicroStrategy \u6301\u6709 BTC\uff09\uff0c\u4f46 2026 \u5e74\u9884\u8ba1\u66f4\u591a\u76f4\u63a5\u914d\u7f6e 0.5-3%\uff08\u900f\u8fc7 ETF \u6216\u4ee3\u5e01\u5316\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u3002 BlackRock \u7b49\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e3b\u6743\u57fa\u91d1\u4e0e\u9000\u4f11\u57fa\u91d1\u6b63\u89c6\u52a0\u5bc6\u4e3a\u957f\u671f\u591a\u5143\u5316\u5bf9\u51b2\uff0c\u914d\u7f6e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6e10\u589e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \u5386\u53f2\u6cd5\u5219\uff1aBTC\u300c\u6625\u8282\u6548\u5e94\u300d<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \"2025<\/p>\n

      \u300c\u5723\u8bde\u4f4e\u70b9-\u6625\u8282\u53cd\u5f39\u300d\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u529b<\/strong><\/h4>\n

      \u897f\u65b9\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\uff1a12 \u6708 20 \u65e5\u81f3 1 \u6708\u521d\uff0c\u6b27\u7f8e\u673a\u6784\u8fdb\u5165\u5047\u671f\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u9aa4\u964d\u3002\u5728\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u629b\u538b\u90fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u6280\u672f\u6027\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

      \u4e9a\u6d32\u8d44\u91d1\u56de\u6d41\uff1a\u6625\u8282\u524d\u540e\uff081 \u6708\u5e95\u81f3 2 \u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\uff09\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u5730\u53d1\u653e\u5e74\u7ec8\u5956\u53ca\u7ea2\u5305\uff0c\u6563\u6237\u53ca\u9ad8\u51c0\u503c\u4eba\u58eb\u589e\u52a0\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u519c\u5386\u65b0\u5e74\u524d\u4e24\u5468\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08\u5982\u5e01\u5b89\u3001 OKX\uff09\u7684 BTC \u4e70\u76d8\u91cf\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

      \u673a\u6784\u91cd\u65b0\u5e73\u8861\uff1a1 \u6708\u662f\u673a\u6784\u65b0\u8d22\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u57fa\u91d1\u3001\u907f\u9669\u57fa\u91d1\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u82e5 BTC \u5728 12 \u6708\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u5bf9\u6297\u8dcc\uff08\u5982 2025 \u5e74\u4ec5\u56de\u6863 5-10%\uff09\uff0c\u673a\u6784\u503e\u5411\u5728 1 \u6708\u52a0\u4ed3\u4ee5\u8ffd\u8d76\u57fa\u51c6\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

      \u94fe\u4e0a\u8d44\u6599\uff1a\u5e95\u90e8\u8baf\u53f7\u7684\u5bc6\u200b\u200b\u96c6\u51fa\u73b0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      \u5728 FOMC \u9e70\u6d3e\u964d\u606f\u843d\u5730\u540e\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u5165\u5178\u578b\u7684\u300c\u5e74\u7ec8\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u300d\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff08BTC\uff09\u5728 88,000-92,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u533a\u95f4\u53cd\u590d\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u6050\u60e7\u8d2a\u5a6a\u6307\u6570\u8dcc\u81f3 25\uff08\u6781\u7aef\u6050\u60e7\uff09\u3002\u8868\u9762\u770b\u662f\u300c\u5356\u4e8b\u5b9e\u300d\u56de\u8c03\u3002\u94fe\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u5374\u4f46\u900f\u9732\u51fa\u66f4\u591a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u8baf\u53f7\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u6df1\u5ea6 capitulation \u3001\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u6301\u7eed\u7d2f\u79ef\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u50a8\u5907\u52a0\u901f\u6d41\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5e95\u90e8\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u6697\u793a\u5f53\u524d\u5e76\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u718a\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u725b\u5e02\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u7684\u300c\u4e2d\u671f\u8c03\u6574+ \u6d17\u76d8\u300d\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n

      1. \u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\uff08STH\uff09Capitulation\uff1a\u75db\u82e6\u63a5\u8fd1\u5c3e\u58f0<\/strong><\/h4>\n

      \"2025<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \u5b9e\u73b0\u4e8f\u635f\u89c4\u6a21\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb 30 \u5929\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\uff08\u6301\u6709<155 \u5929\uff09\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e8f\u635f\u8d85\u8fc7 45 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e 2024 \u5e74 8 \u6708\u65e5\u5706\u5957\u5229\u5d29\u76d8\u65f6\u7684 52 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff08Glassnode \u6570\u636e\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u663e\u793a\u6760\u6746\u73a9\u5bb6\u4e0e\u8ffd\u9ad8\u6563\u6237\u5df2\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6295\u964d\u3002<\/li>\n
      • SOPR \u6307\u6807\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005 SOPR\uff08Spent Output Profit Ratio\uff09\u6301\u7eed\u4f4e\u4e8e 1\uff08\u5e73\u5747\u5356\u51fa\u4e8f\u635f\uff09\uff0c\u5df2\u7ef4\u6301 3 \u5468\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u663e\u793a\u6b64\u7c7b\u6df1\u5ea6 capitulation \u540e\uff0cBTC \u5f80\u5f80\u5728 1-3 \u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u89c1\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u5e95\u90e8\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        2. \u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u50a8\u5907\u4e0e\u63d0\u9886\uff1a\u8d44\u91d1\u8131\u5a92\u8d8b\u52bf\u52a0\u5f3a<\/strong><\/h4>\n

        \"2025<\/p>\n

          \n
        • \u4ea4\u6613\u6240 BTC \u4f59\u989d\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb 30 \u5929\uff0c\u5168\u7f51\u4ea4\u6613\u6240 BTC \u50a8\u5907\u51cf\u5c11\u7ea6 12 \u4e07\u679a\uff08\u7ea6 2.5%\uff09\uff0c\u964d\u81f3 260 \u4e07\u679a\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff08CryptoQuant\uff09\uff0c2018 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/li>\n
        • ETH \u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u50a8\u5907\uff1a\u540c\u671f\u51cf\u5c11\u7ea6 120 \u4e07\u679a ETH\uff0c\u63d0\u6b3e\u901f\u5ea6\u521b 2025 \u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u53cd\u6620 staking \u4e0e\u81ea\u6258\u7ba1\u9700\u6c42\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002<\/li>\n
        • \u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u50a8\u5907\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240 USDT\/USDC \u4f59\u989d\u867d\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u94fe\u4e0a\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5730\u5740\u4e0e\u8f6c\u5e10\u91cf\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u8d44\u91d1\u5e76\u672a\u79bb\u573a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8f6c\u5411\u51b7\u50a8\u5b58\u7b49\u5f85\u518d\u5165\u573a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          \u8d44\u91d1\u4ece\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6d41\u51fa\u901a\u5e38\u9884\u793a\u4ef7\u683c\u5e95\u90e8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u629b\u538b\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u53cd\u5f39\u84c4\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

          3. \u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u6307\u6807\uff1a\u5e95\u90e8\u8baf\u53f7\u5bc6\u96c6<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \"2025<\/p>\n

            \n
          • MVRV Z-Score\uff1a\u76ee\u524d 1.1\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u5386\u53f2\u300c\u7eff\u8272\u4e70\u5165\u533a\u300d\u3002<\/li>\n
          • RHODL Ratio\uff1a\u5df2\u8dcc\u81f3 2022 \u5e74\u718a\u5e02\u5e95\u90e8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u70ed\u5ea6\u5f7b\u5e95\u51b7\u5374\u3002<\/li>\n
          • Puell Multiple\uff1a\u77ff\u5de5\u6536\u5165\u6307\u6807\u56de\u843d\u81f3 0.6\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u70b9\u5e38\u4f34\u968f\u6316\u77ff capitulation \u540e\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002<\/li>\n
          • \u6d3b\u8dc3\u5730\u5740\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\uff1a\u867d\u77ed\u671f\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u4f46 30 \u5929 MA \u672a\u51fa\u73b0\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e0e 2021 \u5e74\u725b\u9876\u7684\u300c\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u67af\u7aed\u300d\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            \u914d\u7f6e\u7b56\u7565\uff1a\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/strong><\/h3>\n

            \u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u4ea4\u4f1a\u70b9\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            • \u77ed\u671f\u60c5\u7eea\u6781\u5ea6\u6050\u614c\uff08Fear & Greed Index 25\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u94fe\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u5e95\u90e8\u7279\u5f81\u5bc6\u96c6\u51fa\u73b0<\/li>\n
            • \u5386\u53f2\u300c\u5723\u8bde\u4f4e\u70b9-\u6625\u8282\u53cd\u5f39\u300d\u89c4\u5f8b\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e94\u5e74\u4e09\u6b21\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6210\u529f<\/li>\n
            • \u5b8f\u89c2\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5373\u5c06\u8f6c\u5411\uff08QT \u7ed3\u675f\u3001 RMP \u542f\u52a8\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u77ed\u671f\u4ecd\u53d7\u9e70\u6d3e\u6307\u5f15\u538b\u5236<\/li>\n
            • \u673a\u6784\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\u4ece\u300c\u6295\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u300d\u8f6c\u578b\u4e3a\u300c\u914d\u7f6e\u300d\u8f6c\u578b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              \u5bf9\u4e8e\u8ffd\u6c42\u957f\u671f\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u73af\u5883\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u76f8\u5bf9\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56de\u62a5\u6846\u67b6\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6 capitulation \u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u6d41\u51fa\u3001\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u8005\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca MVRV \u3001 RHODL \u7b49\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6807\u8fdb\u5165\u5386\u53f2\u4e70\u5165\u533a\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8baf\u53f7\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u90fd\u6807\u5fd7\u8457\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u914d\u7f6e\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u5f00\u542f\u3002 \u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ce8\u91cd\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c12 \u6708\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\u671f\u65e2\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u4e5f\u662f\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u4fdd\u6301\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u6050\u614c\u65f6\u4fdd\u7559\u5f39\u836f\uff0c\u5728\u6625\u8282\u6548\u5e94\u9a8c\u8bc1\u65f6\u987a\u52bf\u800c\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u8ffd\u9010\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u4e3a\u660e\u667a\u3002<\/p>\n

              \n

              \uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5185\u5bb9\u83b7\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34 PANews <\/strong>\u6388\u6743\u8282\u5f55\u53ca\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u8fde\u7ed3 | \u51fa\u5904\uff1aWolfDAO\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>\uff09<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              2025 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5173\u952e\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff08BTC\uff09\u8dcc\u7834 90,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570\uff08Fear […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":771,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.manwah.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}